The Capital Spectator will be off the grid for the next several days, celebrating the July 4th holiday with an extended weekend at several undisclosed locations. The usual routine resumes on Monday, July 8. Happy Independence Day!
Markets Continue To Expect Rate Cuts After Fed Chair’s Comments
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking at a conference on Tuesday, gave the doves most of what they wanted to hear. Although he said more evidence was needed to rationalize cutting interest rates, his overall message favored expectations that policy easing is on the near-term horizon.
Macro Briefing: 3 July 2024
* Fed Chair cites ‘progress’ on inflation but more confidence needed before cutting
* New US vehicle sales barely rose in the second quarter
* China services activity growth eases to 8-month low in June
* Eurozone production activity in June falls at fastest rate in 2024 to date
* US job openings unexpectedly rose in May:
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 July 2024
The return forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) held steady in June after ticking higher for four straight months. GMI’s long-term forecast is unchanged at an annualized 7.1%, matching the estimate in the previous month, based on the average of three models (defined below). GMI is an unmanaged benchmark that holds all the major asset classes (except cash), according to market weights via a set of ETF proxies.
Macro Briefing: 2 July 2024
* Signs of cooling US labor market put Fed on alert
* Global manufacturing PMI indicates weak growth continued in June
* Eurozone headline inflation eases to 2.5% in June
* US construction spending posts unexpected decline in May
* US manufacturing sector contracts for third straight month via ISM survey:
Major Asset Classes | June 2024 | Performance Review
US stocks again secured the top spot for monthly performances in June for the major asset classes. The rally marks the second straight month that American shares led global markets, based on a set of ETFs.
Macro Briefing: 1 July 2024
* Top Dems rule out replacing Biden on ticket
* Far right leads France’s first round of parliamentary elections
* China manufacturing sector contracts for second month in June
* After bitcoin ETF mania cools, investors wonder what’s next for crypto
* Key Fed metric shows inflation eased slightly in May:
Book Bits: 29 June 2024
● The Singularity Is Nearer: When We Merge with AI
Ray Kurzweil
Review via The New York Times
In “The Singularity Is Nearer,” Kurzweil promises that, by 2029, A.I. will be “better than all humans” in “every skill possessed by any human.” During the 2030s, solar power, enhanced by A.I.-driven advances in 3-D printing, will come to dominate the global energy supply, most consumer goods will be free, and the “dramatic reduction of physical scarcity” will “finally allow us to easily provide for the needs of everyone.” Sounds rad!
Enter the blood robots. Have no doubt: “The long-term goal is nanorobots.” One day next decade, Kurzweil believes, you and I will feed nanobots through our capillaries. The little busybodies will swim to our brains, where they will connect our neocortex to the cloud, allowing us to expand our intelligence “millions-fold.” This is “the Singularity.”
Decamping To Rhode Island
The Capital Spectator will be in Rhode Island for the remainder of the week. The diversion to the Ocean State will end on Monday, July 1, when the standard fare resumes. Cheers!
US Stocks Are (Still) Leading The Major Asset Classes In 2024
There was a brief period earlier this year when US shares gave up the leadership crown to commodities, but American stocks have retaken the performance throne in June, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close (June 21).