Monthly Archives: April 2018

Macro Briefing: 30 April 2018

Missile attacks in Syria reportedly kill dozens of Iranians: BBC
Iran charges that US-Saudi cooperation will further destabilize Mideast: Reuters
N. Korea offers to give up nuclear arms for US pledge not to attack: LA Times
Trade-war risk still lurks as negotiations stall ahead of May 1 deadline: NY Times
Migrant caravan waits at US border, hoping for asylum: CNN
T-Mobile and Sprint to merge, forming third-biggest cell firm in US: USA Today
Rising price pressure in US suggest Fed’s rate hikes will continue: Bloomberg
US economy grew 2.3% in Q1, down from 2.9% in Q4: CNN Money
US dollar is rebounding as growth and inflation come into focus: WSJ
Wages in US during Q1 grew at fastest pace in a decade: MarketWatch

Book Bits | 28 April 2018

Us vs. Them: The Failure of Globalism
By Ian Bremmer
Review via CBS News
A new book, “Us vs. Them: The Failure of Globalism” by Ian Bremmer, looks at some of the consequences of increased international connections, growing nationalism around the world, and support for anti-establishment politicians.
In the book, Bremmer argues that disaffected voters are responsible for the rise of populists like Donald Trump, who won the U.S. presidency by promoting anti-establishment, anti-immigrant and anti-globalist sentiments.
He writes: “It’s easy to find fault with populists like Trump. He’s obnoxious, dishonest, and incompetent. But Donald Trump didn’t create ‘us vs. them.’ ‘Us vs. them’ created Donald Trump, and those who dismiss his supporters are damaging the United States.”
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Macro Briefing: 27 April 2018

Korea’s leaders agree to formally end war, pursue denuclearization: Bloomberg
Pompeo, newly confirmed as Secretary of State, embarks on foreign trip: Politico
Soft consumer spending expected to weigh on US growth in Q1: Reuters
Solid data for big tech dispels notion of weakness for the industry: Bloomberg
Jobless claims fell last week to lowest since 1969: WSJ
Aircraft lifts US durable goods orders, but otherwise report is mixed: MarketWatch
US business investment slides in first quarter: WSJ
US trade deficit eases in March–first time in 7 months: MarketWatch
Kansas City Fed Mfg Index surges in April: Bond Buyer
ECB leaves policy unchanged after softer euro area economic data in Q1: FT
GDPNow Q1 growth estimates for US holds at 2.0% vs. 2.9% in Q4: Atlanta Fed

Backtesting Four Portfolio Optimization Strategies In R

Investing strategies run the gamut, but every portfolio shares a common goal: delivering optimal results. The catch is that there’s a wide range of possibilities for defining optimal and so your mileage may vary, depending on preferences, assets, and other factors. Eran Raviv offers a useful review by comparing how four strategies with different portfolio-design strategies stack up via number-crunching in R with the FRAPO package. Let’s build on his profile by analyzing how the strategies fare with a broader set of asset classes based on resetting the optimized weights at the end of each year starting in 2001.
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Macro Briefing: 26 April 2018

Korean leaders to meet at North-South border on Friday: BBC
Chinese geologists say N. Korea’s main nuclear test site has likely collapsed: WaPo
China air force intimidates Taiwan with military flights around island: Reuters
Conservative Supreme Court justices appear to back Trump’s travel ban: The Hill
French president expects Trump will withdraw from Iranian nuclear deal: BBC
Rising interest rates keep Wall Street on edge: CBS
Investors will focus on various inflation numbers in days ahead: Bloomberg
A closer look at the 10-year Treasury yield’s rise to 3%: Calafia Beach Pundit
T. Rowe Price’s assets under mgt top $1 trillion–a sign of active mgt growth: P&I
World trade volume slumped 0.4% in Feb, first monthly loss since Oct: CPB

Macro Briefing: 25 April 2018

Western allies press Trump to maintain nuclear deal with Iran: Reuters
US intelligence monitors Iranian cargo shipments into Syria: CNN
A trade war is a major risk for China’s debt-ridden economy: CNBC
Federal judge orders gov’t must accept new DACA immigration applications: WaPo
Unification of Koreas still unlikely as leaders prepare to meet: Reuters
US Consumer Confidence Index rebounded in April after March decline: CB
New home sales in US increased to 4-month high in March: MarketWatch
Richmond Fed Mfg Index turns negative for first time since 2016: Bond Buyer
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index surged in Feb, up 6.3% y-o-y: CNBC
Federal Housing Finance Agency: US house prices continued to rise in Feb: HW
Corp bonds with lowest investment-grade rating look vulnerable: Bloomberg
10-year Treasury yield reaches 3.0% for first time since 2014: CNN Money