Monthly Archives: July 2018

Macro Briefing: 31 July 2018

US spy satellites find new N. Korean missile activity: Reuters
Will Trump follow through on his gov’t shutdown threat? Probably not: Bloomberg
Trump administration considers bypassing Congress for new tax cut: NY Times
Factories moving out of China over trade-war tensions: Forbes
US pending home sales up in June, first gain in 3 months: Reuters
Robust expansion in Texas factory activity continued in July: Dallas Fed
Fed funds futures: no rate change expected for Aug 1 FOMC meeting: CME

Macro Briefing: 30 July 2018

Trump threatens government shutdown over funding for border wall: Politico
GOP worries that Trump’s tariffs could squeeze party in elections: The Hill
IMF: China could become largest economy by 2030: Independent
China offers UK talks on post-Brexit free-trade deal: Reuters
US Treasury Sec: economy will continue to expand for up to 5 years: Newsweek
The US economy surged in Q2, but analysts expect slower growth: LA Times
US Consumer Sentiment Index dips to 6-mo low on trade worries: Bloomberg
US consumer spending growth accelerated sharply in Q2 to +4.0%: BEA

Book Bits | 28 July 2018

Investing in the Trump Era: How Economic Policies Impact Financial Markets
By Nicholas P. Sargen
Summary via publisher (Palgrave Macmillan)
In the wake of the 2016 U.S. presidential election, investors and the electorate alike are seeking clarity on a wide range of macro policy issues that will impact the economy and markets in the years ahead. The primary goal of this book is to provide an objective source for investors to learn about economic policy issues that surfaced. Topics include long-term growth, the federal budget deficit, healthcare reform, tax reform, regulatory policies affecting the financial system and environment, the nexus of monetary, exchange rate and trade policies, and globalization. The book explains how these issues have evolved, considers arguments from both sides of the political divide, and draws upon evidence from studies by experts in the respective areas.
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Is The Housing Market Signaling Trouble Ahead For US Economy?

Today’s second-quarter GDP report is expected to deliver upbeat news about the US economy. Wobbly housing data may be telling a different story. It’s premature to assume the worst, but the weak year-over-year trends in several housing indicators suggest that today’s Q2 snapshot should be used cautiously as a guide to managing expectations for the near-term future.
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Macro Briefing: 27 July 2018

Trump threatens sanctions on Turkey for detained pastor: NY Times
US Q2 GDP estimates trimmed after data updates on Thursday: WSJ
Trump says today’s Q2 GDP report will show US economy in “terrific” shape: BBG
ECB, voicing concerns about trade, keeps rates at record lows: MW
US trade deficit widened in June: MW
China appears to have erred in thinking Trump was bluffing on trade: SCMP
Facebook shares collapse 19%, among biggest 1-day stock declines ever: NY Times
Amazon profit surges, far surpassing estimates: LA Times
Jobless claims in US rose last week, but still close to historic low: Reuters
KC Fed Mfg Index points to strong activity in July: Bond Buyer
US durable goods orders up 1% in June, first rise in 3 months: MW

Macro Briefing: 26 July 2018

Explosion rocks area near US embassy in Beijing: Bloomberg
ISIS kills more than 200 in southern Syria attack: BBC
Iran president: country should “respond… with action” to Trump threats: The Hill
Trump announces pause in European Union trade tariffs: Politico
US stock market surges after Trump says trade war with EU averted: CNBC
US tax cut raising federal budget deficit faster than expected: NY Times
Sec. of State Pompeo spars with Senators over N. Korea, Russia policy: USA Today
New home sales in US fell 5.3% in June: MarketWatch
Policy sensitive 2-year Treasury yield edges up to 2.66%, a new 10-year high: