Monthly Archives: September 2018

Book Bits | 29 September 2018

AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order
By Kai-Fu Lee
Q&A with author via Recode
Former Google China president Kai-Fu Lee is betting heavily on artificial intelligence; his investment firm Sinovation Ventures has invested more than $600 million in computer vision, machine learning and other forms of automation. And he’s confident that soon this technology will dramatically change the job landscape.
“If we look at what AI cannot do, there are really two main things,” Lee said on the latest episode of Recode Decode, hosted by Kara Swisher. “One is creative jobs. Jobs like scientists, storytellers, artists and so on. And the other are the compassionate people who really have created a human-to-human connection, trust.”
And what about the jobs that require low creativity and compassion?
“All those jobs will be taken by AI,” he said.
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Market Outlook Sees Treasury Yields Continuing To Trend Higher

The prospect of more interest-rate increases in the absence of rising inflation, based on the Federal Reserve’s latest forecast, strikes some as unnecessarily risky for the economy. But for good or ill, the central bank remains on track to lift rates further and the Treasury market (still) expects no less after the 25-basis-point increase from earlier in the week that pushed the Fed funds target rate to a 2.0%-2.25% range, the highest in more than a decade.
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Macro Briefing: 28 September 2018

Senate committee may vote on Kavanaugh today: Politico
American Bar Assoc. recommends delaying Kavanaugh vote: CNN
Italy defies EU by raising deficit target: Bloomberg
Israeli PM describes secret Iranian nuclear site: Reuters
WTO cuts global trade forecast, warning trade war threatens growth: Bloomberg
Pending Homes Sales Index falls for eighth month: HousingWire
Fed Chairman Powell: US not facing high odds of recession in next 2 years: Reuters
Wholesale inventories revised down for July: CNBC
KC Fed Mfg Index ticked lower in Sep, but still showing “solid” gain: KC Fed
Jobless claims in US rise more than expected: CNBC
US merchandise trade deficit widened to biggest gap in 6-months: Bloomberg
Revised Q2 US GDP growth: 4.2%, unchange from previous estimate: MW
US durable goods orders accelerate to 11.8% y-o-y, highest in over a year:

Macro Briefing: 27 September 2018

Federal Reserve raises interest rates for 3rd time in 2018: CNN
Trump criticizes Fed’s rate hike: CNBC
Fed estimates of US GDP growth for 2018 and 2019 tick higher: Fed
Fed chief sees more rate hikes ahead thanks to strong economy: Bloomberg
Kavanaugh hearing set for today amid doubts and new allegations: The Hill
Reports of higher spending plans by Italy’s gov’t weigh on euro: CNBC
Ford’s CEO says Trump’s China tariffs will cost company $1 billion: USA Today
MSCI considers raising weight for Chinese stocks in global benchmarks: Reuters
New US home sales up 12.7% in August vs. year-earlier level: MarketWatch

Macro Briefing: 26 September 2018

Senate panel vote on Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination set for Fri: Politico
Arizona prosecutor to question Kavanaugh and accuser in Senate hearing: The Hill
Trump outlines ‘maximum pressure’ policy in UN speech: The Hill
China cancels scheduled US warship visit to Hong Kong: CNN
Fed on track to raise rates today and may end ‘accommodative’ policy: Reuters
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller: growth rate of US home prices eased in July: CNBC
Richmond Fed Mfg Index rises to record high in Sepetmber: MarketWatch
Consumer Confidence Index surges in September, near record high: MarketWatch

Macro Briefing: 25 September 2018

Supreme Court nominee denies sexual misconduct charges on TV: Fox
Questions swirl about future of Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein: CNN
Trump’s lawyer calls for ‘a time out’ in Mueller probe if Rosenstein leaves: ABC
Russia plans to install advanced missiles in Syria: Axios
European Union rolls out plan to sidestep US sanctions on Iran: BBC
JP Morgan strategist: Trump risks ‘major miscalculation’ over US-China trade: MW
Dallas Fed Mfg Index: slower but still healthy growth in Sep: Dallas Fed
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index (3mo avg) jumps to 4-mo high in Aug: Chicago Fed