Monthly Archives: September 2020

The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 30 September 2020

Stimulus or no stimulus? That is the question (and has been for months), but the false dawns have run out of road in Washington. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin gave it one more try today (Sep. 30) but no dice. Maybe they’ll pull a rabbit out of the hat but at this stage that’s considered a near-zero probability ahead of the election.

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Who Won The Debate? No One, But America Surely Lost

Whatever you thought of last night’s chaotic “debate” between President Trump and Joe Biden, the event offered no reason to think that the Nov. 3 election will be an orderly affair that cleanly selects a president and lays the groundwork for a new administration to take charge of the nation. Sadly, that low bar of precedent that has prevailed for most of the country’s history on this front appears headed for something decidedly abnormal.

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Macro Briefing: 29 September 2020

The first Trump-Biden debate was decidedly unpresidential: Reuters
Covid-19 stimulus talks face deadline today at noon, Democrats advise: MW
Armenia-Azerbaijan war at risk of becoming wider regional conflict: BBG
China reportedly set to launch antitrust investigation into Google: Reuters
ECB may follow Fed and allow inflation to temporarily rise above target: BBG
Disney will lay off 28,000 park employees due to coronavirus: Reuters
China’s manufacturing rebound continues in Sep, survey data shows: IHS Markit
US home-price growth accelerated in July, rising 4.8% year over year: CNBC
Will Fed’s low-interest-rate policy create challenges when economy recovers? WSJ
Restaurant industry warily eyes fall with reopening hanging in balance: AP
US Consumer Confidence Index rebounds sharply in September: MW

allows inflation to temporarily rise above the institution’s target.

Macro Briefing: 29 September 2020

Global coronavirus death toll passes 1 million: CNBC
Conflict on Russia’s southern border at risk of escalating into all-out war: NPR
Tuesday marks a critical juncture for prospects for a pre-election stimulus bill: BBG
EU won’t accept UK backtracking on Brexit deal, EU minister writes: Reuters
Eurozone consumer confidence continues to rebound in September: BBG
Dallas Fed Mfg Index posts stronger growth in September: DF
Biden holds sizable lead over Trump in polls ahead of tonight’s first debate: RCP

Macro Briefing: 28 September 2020

Amy Coney Barrett will change balance of power in Supreme Court: FiveThirtyEight
Central banks face new challenges after spending $9 trillion in stimulus: BBG
Trump reportedly paid just $750 in taxes in 2016 and 2017: MW
UK-EU trade talks enter a final phase: CNBC
Armenia and Azerbaijan, former Soviet republics, clash over disputed region: CNN
Judge blocks Trump administration’s TikTok ban: CNBC
Uber wins court fight in London to continue operating: CNBC
Ransomeware attacks heighten risks for clarity on election night: NYT
Growth slowed sharply for US durable goods orders in August: MW

Book Bits: 26 September 2020

The Wake-Up Call: Why the Pandemic Has Exposed the Weakness of the West,
and How to Fix It

John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge
Review via The Independent
“There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen”. The situation must be serious when two of the West’s most prominent economic liberals begin a book by quoting Lenin.
Bloomberg’s John Micklethwait and The Economist’s Adrian Wooldridge do exactly that in their book-cum-pamphlet on how to relaunch Western liberal democracy after the pandemic.
‘Wake Up Call: Why the pandemic has exposed the weakness of the West – and how to fix it’ is one of two newly released books that prescribes how government should change for the benefit of us all.

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