Stimulus or no stimulus? That is the question (and has been for months), but the false dawns have run out of road in Washington. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin gave it one more try today (Sep. 30) but no dice. Maybe they’ll pull a rabbit out of the hat but at this stage that’s considered a near-zero probability ahead of the election.
Monthly Archives: September 2020
Who Won The Debate? No One, But America Surely Lost
Whatever you thought of last night’s chaotic “debate” between President Trump and Joe Biden, the event offered no reason to think that the Nov. 3 election will be an orderly affair that cleanly selects a president and lays the groundwork for a new administration to take charge of the nation. Sadly, that low bar of precedent that has prevailed for most of the country’s history on this front appears headed for something decidedly abnormal.
Macro Briefing: 29 September 2020
The first Trump-Biden debate was decidedly unpresidential: Reuters
Covid-19 stimulus talks face deadline today at noon, Democrats advise: MW
Armenia-Azerbaijan war at risk of becoming wider regional conflict: BBG
China reportedly set to launch antitrust investigation into Google: Reuters
ECB may follow Fed and allow inflation to temporarily rise above target: BBG
Disney will lay off 28,000 park employees due to coronavirus: Reuters
China’s manufacturing rebound continues in Sep, survey data shows: IHS Markit
US home-price growth accelerated in July, rising 4.8% year over year: CNBC
Will Fed’s low-interest-rate policy create challenges when economy recovers? WSJ
Restaurant industry warily eyes fall with reopening hanging in balance: AP
US Consumer Confidence Index rebounds sharply in September: MW
allows inflation to temporarily rise above the institution’s target.
Will Housing Save The US Economy?
It’s a tall order but housing’s enjoying a V recovery and history suggests that this key slice of the economy plays a critical role in the business cycle. Is this a macro silver bullet for 2020 and beyond?
Macro Briefing: 29 September 2020
Global coronavirus death toll passes 1 million: CNBC
Conflict on Russia’s southern border at risk of escalating into all-out war: NPR
Tuesday marks a critical juncture for prospects for a pre-election stimulus bill: BBG
EU won’t accept UK backtracking on Brexit deal, EU minister writes: Reuters
Eurozone consumer confidence continues to rebound in September: BBG
Dallas Fed Mfg Index posts stronger growth in September: DF
Biden holds sizable lead over Trump in polls ahead of tonight’s first debate: RCP
Nowhere To Hide: All The Major Asset Classes Fell Last Week
Financial gravity spared no corner of global markets last week. Selling pinched all the major asset classes for the trading week through Friday, Sep. 25, based on a set of ETF proxies.
Macro Briefing: 28 September 2020
Amy Coney Barrett will change balance of power in Supreme Court: FiveThirtyEight
Central banks face new challenges after spending $9 trillion in stimulus: BBG
Trump reportedly paid just $750 in taxes in 2016 and 2017: MW
UK-EU trade talks enter a final phase: CNBC
Armenia and Azerbaijan, former Soviet republics, clash over disputed region: CNN
Judge blocks Trump administration’s TikTok ban: CNBC
Uber wins court fight in London to continue operating: CNBC
Ransomeware attacks heighten risks for clarity on election night: NYT
Growth slowed sharply for US durable goods orders in August: MW
Book Bits: 26 September 2020
and How to Fix It
John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge
Review via The Independent
“There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen”. The situation must be serious when two of the West’s most prominent economic liberals begin a book by quoting Lenin.
Bloomberg’s John Micklethwait and The Economist’s Adrian Wooldridge do exactly that in their book-cum-pamphlet on how to relaunch Western liberal democracy after the pandemic.
‘Wake Up Call: Why the pandemic has exposed the weakness of the West – and how to fix it’ is one of two newly released books that prescribes how government should change for the benefit of us all.
The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 25 September 2020
Waiting, Watching, Wondering: Maybe it’s the nation’s rising anxiety over the November election. Or worries that the economic rebound is slipping. Whatever the reason, the week that just in ended dispatched losses far and wide.
Is The Post-Crash Reflation Trade Fading?
Last month the Federal Reserve announced that it was adjusting its monetary policy in a bid to push inflation higher. Based on recent trading in the Treasuries market, the crowd remains unconvinced and may be in the early stages of unwinding a months-long rise in pricing inflation expectations higher.