Monthly Archives: October 2020

Macro Briefing: 27 Oct 2020

Senate confirms Amy Coney Barrett to Supreme Court: CNBC
Supreme Court: Wisconsin mail-in ballots valid only if received by Nov 3: CNN
Russian air strikes in Syria kill 50-plus Turkish-backed fighters: BBC
China’s Ant Group expected to raise $34 billion in record IPO: WSJ
Pandemic moves Eurozone banks to tighten access to credit: Reuters
US new home sales slipped in Sep but remain strong: MW
Dallas Fed Mfg Index: Manufacturing Expands for fifth month in Oct: DF
Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity Index: US growth continued to slow in Sep: AP

Macro Briefing: 26 Oct 2020

Europe imposes new Covid-19 restrictions as infections rise: WSJ
Five aides to VP Pence test positive for coronavirus: CNN
Investors consider last week’s rise in bond yields to 4-month high: CNBC
China to impose sanctions on several US firms over arms sales to Taiwan: BBG
House Speaker Pelosi waiting for new stimulus counteroffer from WH: BBG
Momentum factor weaker than it appears, say academics: II
200,000-plus lose power in Northern Calif ahead of raging wildfires: NBC
German business sentiment fell in Sep–first drop in 5 months: Reuters
US economic recovery gained momentum in September via PMI data: IHSM

Book Bits: 24 October 2020

The Prepared Investor: How to Prevent the Next Crisis from Affecting Your Financial Independence
Christopher Manske
Press release for book’s publication
“Why do some crises affect the stock market more than others? Wall Street typically suggests that, when crisis hits, investors bide their time because someday, perhaps years later, the markets will come back. This standard approach means waiting through chaos, confusion, and even long-term loss,” said Chris Manske author of The Prepared Investor. “I was compelled to write this book to tell the true story of crisis investing which is generally more proactive – and a lot more optimistic – than it seems on the surface.”

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The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 23 Oct 2020

Rally In Risk Assets Ex-US: US stocks and bonds took a back seat to offshore rallies this week, providing some much-needed lift to the idea that holding a globally diversified portfolio is more than an outdated academic concept. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. It’s too soon to declare the end has arrived for the long running dominance of American risk assets on the global stage, but suddenly it’s easier to wonder if this week’s results are a preview of things to come.

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Will The US Avoid Eurozone’s Rising Double-Dip Recession Risk?

PMI survey data for October indicate that the Eurozone economy’s recovery is slipping into a new phase of contraction, due to a rebound in coronavirus infections and related blowback on business and consumer activity. The US economy appears more durable so far, although America is reporting a new rise in Covid-19 infections, which suggests that economic headwinds may rise in the third quarter. (Please see the update at the end of this post with encouraging data for October that was published after this article was written.)

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Macro Briefing: 23 October 2020

Trump and Biden clash at kinder, gentler presidential debate: WSJ
Biden calls for economic ‘transition’ from oil to renewable energy: AP
Coronavirus forcing a sweeping changes for US workforce: Politico
US approves antiviral drug remdesivir to treat Covid-19 patients: BBC
US 10-year Treasury yield rises to 4-month high: CNBC
Eurozone Composite PMI in Oct shows rising double-dip recession risk: IHSM
UK economic growth ‘slowed considerably’ in Oct via PMI survey data: IHSM
Japan’s economic downturn persists in Oct, PMI survey data shows: IHSM
Coronavirus, election uncertainty are main influences on firms’ outlook: AF
Avoiding virus lockdown may not be be cure for sidestepping economic pain: NYT
US jobless claims fell to pandemic low of 787,000 last week: CNBC

Macro Briefing: 22 October 2020

US nat’l security officials: Russia and Iran meddling in US election: CNBC
Supreme Court nomination set to advance as Dems plan to boycott vote: NYT
Trump and Biden to meet in tonight’s final debate: AP
Record investor demand for European Union’s debut of ‘social bonds’: CNBC
German consumer sentiment “is fading noticeably in October”: GfK
OxyContin maker Purdue Pharma to plead guilty to federal charges: CNN
Fed’s Beige Book: US economic activity was generally “slight to modest”: MW
Debt-to-GDP ratios surge across Eurozone countries: BBG