The Capital Spectator publishes The US Business Cycle Risk Report (US-BCRR) on a subscriber-only basis. The weekly newsletter monitors and evaluates recession risk for the United States, based on a methodology outlined in Nowcasting The Business Cycle: A Practical Guide For Spotting Business Cycle Peaks. US-BCRR’s econometric framework analyzes a broad set of economic and financial indicators to estimate the probability that an NBER-defined recession has started. For additional perspective, each issue also reviews the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the Philly Fed’s ADS Business Conditions Index, and a markets-based estimate of recession risk. The newsletter is published weekly—a pdf file is emailed to subscribers every weekend. In periods of unusually volatile economic conditions, US-BCRR may be published more frequently. Here’s a recent sample:
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