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The Capital Spectator publishes two research reports on a subscriber-only basis:

The US Business Cycle Risk Report
The ETF Asset Class Performance Review

For details, including subscription information, please see the summaries below.

The US Business Cycle Risk Report

The US Business Cycle Risk Report (US-BCRR) monitors recession risk for the United States, based on a methodology outlined in Nowcasting The Business Cycle: A Practical Guide For Spotting Business Cycle Peaks. US-BCRR’s econometric framework analyzes a broad set of economic and financial indicators to estimate the probability that an NBER-defined recession has started in the US. For additional perspective, each issue also reviews the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the Philly Fed’s ADS Business Conditions Index. The newsletter is published weekly—a pdf file is emailed to subscribers every weekend. In periods of unusually volatile economic conditions, US-BCRR may be published more frequently. Here’s a recent sample:


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US Business Cycle Risk Report