There are numerous ways to predict economic and market outcomes, each with its own set of pros and cons. One of the more recent arrivals in the realm of trying to divine the future is the rise of prediction markets — platforms where individuals can wager on the outcome of future events and track the estimates in real time. The future’s still uncertain and no one has a crystal ball, but monitoring the estimated probabilities for various macro events offers another source of analytics, if only to compare with the implied probabilities from the usual suspects. On that basis, here’s the first installment for what will be a periodic review of wagers for several economic and financial expectations. The sources for this update: Polymarket and Kalshi. Meanwhile, one thing that hasn’t changed for predictions from any source: Caveat emptor! Note, too, that the predictions shown below reflect a moment in time (earlier today). For the latest updates, click on the links.
