It’s hardly a surprise to anyone who’s been following the economic news of late. But even if it’s just the latest confirmation of what’s already become clear in recent weeks, the soaring state of the Conference Board’s index of leading indicators is a sober reminder that the economy won’t easily be dragged into a slowdown anytime soon.
The Conference Board yesterday reported that its U.S. leading index jumped 1.1% last month, surprising economists by a fairly wide margin. The consensus estimate called for a rise of less than half of what was reported, according to TheStreet.com. In addition to being among the highest monthly advances in some time, it’s the fifth gain in the last six months. The implication: economic growth in the future will stay robust.
Among the catalysts moving the leading indicators higher: the fading of weekly claims for unemployment insurance. It’s old news in late February that the labor market has found a new head of steam. Old, but the trend still warrants attention if only because employment strength carries so much influence over the economy overall. That includes Joe Sixpack’s thinking on whether he’ll keep spending more within the temples of consumerism, otherwise known as malls and other retail outlets.