The market expects no change in the current 2.0% Fed funds rate at this afternoon’s FOMC announcement. Looking out over the second half of this year, however, the Fed funds futures market anticipates higher rates.
The December ’08 contract is currently priced with a 50-basis point hike to 2.5% in mind. It’s any one’s guess if that forecast will hold, or if it’s even worthy of pursuit. Meantime, the central bank continues to grapple with the twin risks of inflation and deflation, as Martin Wolf writes in today’s Financial Times: “Two storms are buffeting the world economy: an inflationary commodity-price storm and a deflationary financial one.”
It’s not yet obvious that the Fed and other central banks are up to the job of collectively navigating the complex macroeconomic waters that define and threaten the global economy in 2008 and beyond. But resolving this challenge, or not, will determine much of what unfolds in the years ahead. The central banks, in short, have their work cut out for them. Hanging in the balance: trillions of dollars of investments, the outlook for the global economy and the livelihoods of the planet’s workforce.
Alas, cracking this nut isn’t going to be easy. For one thing, much of the experience in central banking is dealing with inflation fighting alone, occasionally interrupted by an outright bout of deflation, as during the Great Depression in the 1930s and Japan for much of the past 20 years. Battling both at once is a rare event, which is to say that the Fed’s experience in dealing with such a beast is relatively thin.
Experienced or not, that’s the predicament du jour. On the one hand, inflation is bubbling. Although absolute levels of prices generally are rising by historically modest standards, the fact that the trend has been up for some time sends a warning signal that central banks can’t, or at least shouldn’t ignore indefinitely.
But while inflation bubbles, demand destruction appears to be gaining momentum too. The latest examples include yesterday’s news on tumbling home prices and plunging consumer confidence.