The financial ills that began in August 2007 metastasized sometime over the past few months into an economic contraction. The exact moment is unknown, but there’s no mistaking the trend now. The only question is whether the global economy overall will suffer a recession. The risk is rising by the day, largely because the developed world is already in a slump. If the emerging markets succumb too, the next few years will be quite difficult, perhaps more than is generally expected.
The IMF forecasts that the advanced economies will contract by 0.25% next year (see chart below). If so, the downturn would mark the first fall in the developed world’s real GDP pace on an annual basis since World War II. The good news, or so the IMF advises, is that a rebound will commence sometime in late-2009 and that emerging markets will still expand by respectable if no longer spectacular rates.
In the meantime, the U.S. has already reported a dip in GDP for Q3 and more of the same looks likely. The sharp drop in October’s retail sales, as reported on Friday, is the statistical poster child for expecting a string of negative numbers in the coming quarterly GDP updates here.
“Consumer confidence is beleaguered,” Bill Martin, CEO of ShopperTrak, a Chicago-based retail analysis firm, tells The Christian Science Monitor. “There is no good news to look for anywhere. People are just squirreling away money.”
That’s an especially pernicious problem for U.S. economic activity, which is heavily reliant on consumer spending. The challenge is only compounded by the ongoing real estate correction, rising unemployment and similar ills now swirling throughout the globe. Can you say perfect storm?