Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will be chatting up the central bank’s exit strategy later this week when he testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on February 10. To say that there are political and economic risks hovering over the subject is to understate the potential hazards.
There are risks to tightening too early, which some worry would repeat the mistakes of 1936-1937, when reserve requirements were tightened and the economy slipped into recession. At the same time, it’d be foolish to discount the potential for higher inflation in the years ahead in the wake of the extraordinary monetary stimulus over the past year or so. Regardless of the economic reality, the political pressure to keep rates low is intense, given the weak labor market.