Since the Labor Department released the March employment report, which delivered the first substantial gain in nonfarm payrolls since the recession began in December 2007, the debate about the strength of the economic recovery has gone into overdrive. A selective sampling of the conversation…
Monthly Archives: April 2010
BACK TO THE FUTURE OF ASSET ALLOCATION
The FT’s Gillian Tett reported yesterday that the “Harvard model” of investing is under the microscope at the Government Investment Corporation of Singapore (GIC), a sovereign wealth fund. The internal debate at the fund carries ” fascinating implications for investors round the world.”
NEW JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE; CONTINUING CLAIMS FALL
A FRESH LOOK AT THE RED INK CHALLENGE
It’s all about debt from here on out, and probably will be for many years. That’s old news, of course, but it’s still relevant, as we’ve been discussing, including here and here. A new research paper from the Bank for International Settlements is the latest contribution to the literature that rings the warning bells.
THE COMPLICATIONS OF REBALANCING
The lessons tied to rebalancing a portfolio’s asset allocation should be simple, but they aren’t. Like every other investing topic, this one too comes with baggage. Although there’s a large body of research suggesting that rebalancing is productive, not everyone agrees. Some of this is about the details, although the basic question of whether rebalancing is worthwhile in concept is debated as well.
CYCLICAL THOUGHTS
It’s now clear that the Great Recession is not (was not) the Great Depression 2.0. A deeper crisis appears to have been averted. That’s not to say that all’s well. But given the dire expectations of late-2008 and early 2009, the view from early April 2010 looks like a gift from heaven. The question is whether this is a free lunch? Or, as we expect, there’s a price to pay, even if the price isn’t obvious yet, in either the details or magnitude.
Of course, we know that there’ll be lots of debt to deal with. We’ve known that for some time. But it seems as though the market, so far, has accepted this price. In fact, the market doesn’t appear extraordinarily upset, to the extent that we can glean such sentiments from things like bond prices and the associated yields.
THE 10-YEAR TREASURY TOUCHES 4%
The benchmark 10-year Treasury touched 4% today. That’s the highest yield since October 31, 2008, according to Treasury data.
THE FOCUS TURNS TO BONDS, INTEREST RATES & INFLATION
As the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note inches higher, closing in on 4%, the chatter about interest rates and inflation is heating up.
PUT A FORK IN IT?
Bloomberg News reports:
The biggest increase in employment in three years makes it “pretty clear” the deepest U.S. recession since the 1930s has ended, said the head of the group charged with making the call.
MORE CHATTER ABOUT THE MARCH JOBS REPORT
Yesterday’s monthly update on the labor market received a lot of attention, as you’d expect, given that it was the first real month of substantial gain for payrolls since the recession began in December 2007. But for all the cheering, there’s still plenty of sobering realities to consider, including a few observations that caught my attention over the last 24 hours: