Today’s update of retail sales for June doesn’t look good, but it’s still not so bad in terms of the broader trend. That doesn’t mean that there’s nothing to worry about, but for the moment the annual pace of retail sales is still comfortably in positive territory. But given the current climate, more downshifting may be coming. At what point does a return to trend signal something worse? It’d be foolish to underestimate the hazards these days, but the economy’s fate is not yet doomed, or so the trend in retail sales imply.