The reflation trade that’s been bubbling since late-August has had a good run, and it’s helped tip the outlook from negative to slightly positive. But the trend faces new challenges. The revival in expectations about the economy in recent months is still poised to prevail, and that’s no small plus to help mend the macro ills. But there’s a new batch of turbulence in town, and much of it is blowing from political debates. Even if everything was peachy keen with the pols (and it most certainly is not), the improved outlook for the U.S. economy in recent months remains a precarious renewal. Add in the new turmoil in Washington into the mix and the waning days of 2010 are likely to bring a fresh round of volatility to the capital and commodity markets.