If the federal government was a corporation–a very big corporation–how would it stack up? Mary Meeker takes a stab at an answer. Befitting the size of her target, the analysis is hefty in its own right, weighing in at 266 pages. “This report looks at the federal government as if it were a business, with the goal of informing the debate about our nation’s financial situation and outlook,” writes Meeker, a partner at KPCB and former financial analyst at Morgan Stanley, in the newly released “USA Inc.” The report examines the government’s income statement and balance sheet and concludes: “By the standards of any public corporation, USA Inc.’s financials are discouraging.” If you need additional details, this PDF file won’t disappoint. If you prefer a bound copy of the dark details, you can find it here. Just don’t read it aloud in mixed company. The red ink could be especially disturbing for children, who will inherit this mess eventually.

Last year’s fourth-quarter rise in GDP wasn’t as strong as initially estimate, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports. That’s discouraging for all the usual reasons, along with the fact that the economy needs all the momentum it can muster if there’s an oil-shock coming, courtesy of the turmoil in the Mideast.

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Rising Oil Prices Pose New Threat to U.S. Economy
New York Times/Feb 24
In the last week, oil prices have risen more than 10 percent and even breached $100 a barrel. A sustained $10 increase in oil prices would shave about two-tenths of a percentage point off economic growth, according to Dean Maki, chief United States economist at Barclays Capital. The Federal Reserve had forecast last week that the United States economy would grow by 3.4 to 3.9 percent in 2011, up from 2.9 percent last year.
Calibrating the Macro Effects of Higher Oil Prices: Results from the MA Model
Macroadvisers/Feb 24
Assuming no change in long-term inflation expectations, no monetary policy response, and no financial-market spillovers, the partial effects of the rise in oil prices can be estimated by scaling up or down the following simulation result generated from our model. An increase in oil prices of $10/bbl for one year starting in the first quarter of 2011 would:
•Reduce GDP growth by about 0.3 percentage point over the first half of the year and by 0.2 percentage point over the entire year.
•Headline PCE inflation would be about 0.1 percentage point higher over the year, and the unemployment rate about 0.1 percentage point higher.

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