Do big increases in commodity prices always lead to sharp increases in inflation? And while we’re pondering the topic, does a large drop in commodity prices invariably trim inflationary pressures? On both counts the answer is… no. Or so a new research essay from the Chicago Fed argues.
Daily Archives: April 12, 2011
Will The Growth Momentum Last?
Small business confidence slipped last month, based on a report released today by National Federation of Independent Business. “It looks like everyone became more pessimistic in March,” said NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg in a statement. “Or, perhaps, this is a ‘new normal’ and we are unlikely to see the surges usually experienced at the start of a recovery… Today’s recession-level reading is, all in all, a real disappointment.”
Strategic Briefing | 4.12.2011 | Energy Prices & The Economy
Despite New Risks, Global Recovery Seen Gaining Strength
IMF World Economic Outlook | April 11
World real GDP growth is forecast to be about 4½ percent in 2011 and 2012, down modestly from 5 percent in 2010. Real GDP in advanced economies and emerging and developing economies is expected to expand by about 2½ percent and 6½ percent, respectively. Downside risks continue to outweigh upside risks. In advanced economies, weak sovereign balance sheets and still-moribund real estate markets continue to present major concerns, especially in certain euro area economies; fi nancial risks are also to the downside as a result of the high funding requirements of banks and sovereigns. New downside risks are building on account of commodity prices, notably for oil, and, relatedly, geopolitical uncertainty, as well as overheating and booming asset markets in emerging market economies. However, there is also the potential for upside surprises to growth in the short term, owing to strong corporate balance sheets in advanced economies and buoyant demand in emerging and developing economies.