In the great debate about whether there’s another recession heading our way, economist Andrew Smithers, head of Smithers & Co. and author of Wall Street Revalued, weighs in with a persuasive argument that the year ahead will be no stranger to risk and so it’s premature to dismiss the idea that a new downturn is lurking. A persuasive argument isn’t always the same as fate, but regardless of your macro outlook it’s helpful to consider an array of opinions if only to stress test your own convictions. The world is awash in forecasts, of course, but Smithers’ take strikes me as valuable for framing the linkages in markets, politics, and the economy. It’s a thankless task, of course, but someone’s got to do it and he does a commendable job in a new research note sent to clients today.

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