New orders for durable goods rose 2.2% last month, taking some of the sting out of January’s sharp 3.6% tumble. February’s rebound isn’t particularly impressive next to last November’s 4.2% surge, or even December’s 3.3% increase. But the latest pop was enough to support the year-over-year pace and keep it firmly in 10%-plus territory. In short, this crucial series—economist Bernard Baumohl calls durable goods orders “an excellent leading indicator of economic activity”—remains decisively in the growth camp. Whether that’s enough to offset trouble brewing elsewhere—decelerating income growth, for instance—remains to be seen. But for now, the macro news du jour looks a touch brighter.

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Personal disposable income growth has been slowing, a trend that threatens to derail the economic recovery–if it rolls on. Deciding if this hazard has reached the point of no return is still an open debate, which is why Friday’s update on income and spending for February will be closely analyzed for clues about the next phase for the business cycle.

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