The relationship between real (inflation-adjusted) wages and the business cycle is “inconclusive,” a recent study reminds. For example, the empirical literature “finds that the wages of newly hired workers are more cyclical than wages of workers in ongoing employment relationships,” notes a 2010 paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. But if you’re inclined to see a procyclical link between wage growth and the economy generally, Friday’s income and spending update for April holds out the possibility that all’s not yet lost for expecting growth.
Daily Archives: June 4, 2012
Strategic Briefing | 6.4.12 | Jobs & The Economy
Growth Slowdown Seen for Third Year in U.S. Dodging a Recession
Bloomberg | June 4
The U.S. economy looks set to deliver a repeat performance in 2012: for the third straight year, it may suffer a swoon yet not slip into a recession.
“I don’t think the slowdown will be any more consequential than the past two years,” said John Ryding, a former Federal Reserve researcher who is chief economist at RDQ Economics LLC in New York. “There are positives out there in the economy. We’ll avoid a recession.”