After today’s update of jobless claims, The Capital Spectator’s revised nowcast of third-quarter GDP slipped by the smallest of margins to real annualized growth of 1.92%. That’s down ever so slightly from the previous 1.93% estimate. Once again, it adds up to effectively no change, which is a clue for thinking that the outlook for sluggish growth rolls on. That said, the current nowcast still represents a small improvement over the 1.7% growth rate for Q2, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Daily Archives: September 20, 2012
Are Jobless Claims Treading Water Again?
New filings for jobless benefits slipped a bit last week, but the bigger story is that new claims appear to be stuck in neutral again. It’s hard to say for sure, however, since the weekly numbers are quite noisy. But if the last few months are an indication, progress in paring claims has slowed to a crawl if not ceased altogether. Even so, it’s too soon to assume the worst: the year-over-year change in unadjusted claims is still falling.