The Labor Department’s employment report for September, officially scheduled for release tomorrow, October 4, will be postponed because of the government shutdown. But assuming that the data will be published at some point, private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase 192,000 (seasonally adjusted) in the September update from the Labor Department, according to The Capital Spectator’s average econometric point forecast. The projected gain is substantially higher than the previously reported increase of 152,000 for August. Meanwhile, The Capital Spectator’s average projection for September is moderately above a pair of consensus forecasts for private payrolls, based on surveys of economists.
Monthly Archives: October 2013
ADP: Private Payrolls Rose 166k In September
Private payrolls increased 166,000 last month on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to today’s release of the ADP Employment Report. That’s a bit more than August’s 159,000 advance, although the pace remains sluggish compared with recent history in terms of monthly comparisons. On a brighter note, the year-over-year change in private payrolls turned higher again in September, rising 1.88% last month vs. the year-earlier level. That’s the fifth straight month of improvement for the annual rate of increase, according to ADP numbers. As a result, last month’s year-over-year gain is the highest in more than a year. Overall, the ADP data implies that Friday’s official payrolls report from the government would also dispatch slightly better numbers from the previous month… if the report was released. Thanks to the government shutdown, however, Friday’s Labor Department update looks set to remain a mystery until further notice.
Who Moved My Economic Data?
One of the victims of the federal government’s shutdown is the delay of economic reports. Analyzing the business cycle is hard enough under normal circumstances, but let’s see what happens as we try to dissect the macro tea leaves with a bout of partial blindness for an indeterminate amount of time. That includes going dark on Friday’s September payrolls report, which had been scheduled for release by the Labor Department but is now postponed until further notice. All the more reason to focus on today’s ADP Employment Report, which may end up as the only number available this week for analyzing changes in September’s payrolls.
ISM Mfg. Index Rises In September. On The Other Hand…
The modest rise in the ISM Manufacturing Index in today’s September update surprised most economists, based on consensus forecasts that anticipated a decline. But the advance to 56.2 last month–the fourth consecutive gain for this benchmark–matched yesterday’s average econometric projection via The Capital Spectator. More importantly, this early look at September’s macro profile suggests that economic growth remains the prevailing wind for evaluating the business cycle. Assuming, of course, the fiscal follies in Washington don’t roll on for too long and bite too deeply.
Major Asset Classes | September 2013 | Performance Review
The global markets rebounded sharply in September, with most of the major asset classes posting handsome gains. The main exception: broadly defined commodities, which retreated nearly 3%. Otherwise, there was a bull-market party across the board at the finale for the third quarter, led by a potent 8.6% rise last month in foreign real estate/REITs. In fact, foreign assets in unhedged US dollar terms generally fared quite well in September, including a strong revival in emerging markets equities, which advanced 6.5%–the best month for this slice of global equities in more than a year. Unsurprisingly, the Global Market Index—an unmanaged, market-weighted benchmark of all the major asset classes—earned a handsome gain in September, rising 3.9%. That’s the best monthly increase for GMI since January 2012.