Trailing returns for the major asset classes continued to rise in June, a trend that’s left expected risk premium forecasts flat to slightly lower since last month’s update. The Global Market Index (GMI)–an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of all the major asset classes—is projected to earn an annualized 3.9% risk premium (total return less the “risk-free” rate) in the long run, based on analysis of the data through June 2014. The forecast is unchanged from May’s estimate.
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