Treasury yields fell again yesterday, with the benchmark 10-year rate slipping to 2.43% at Thursday’s close—marking a 13-month low. More of the same is on tap at the moment: Early trading on Friday shows the yield dipping below 2.40%. Lower yields at this stage are a warning sign, of course, albeit inspired by a hodgepodge of factors. The good news is that macro weakness in the US isn’t a catalyst at this point, as suggested by yesterday’s drop in weekly jobless claims, which left the four-week-average for this leading indicator at an eight-year low. The unexpected decline in claims points to the possibility that growth in the US labor market is picking up. But the improving macro news comes at a time when risk-off sentiment is on the rise.
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