The economic trend for the US remained positive in early September, sticking to readings that are near the highest levels reached so far this year, according to a markets-based estimate of macro conditions. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at +13.2% yesterday (September 8), or moderately below 2014’s peak value of 16.0% on August 26. The consistent run of positive numbers in recent history suggests that business cycle risk remains low. A decline below 0% in MMRI would indicate that recession risk is elevated. By comparison, readings above 0% imply that the economy will expand in the near-term future.
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