The US economic trend remained positive in early November, rebounding from last month’s decline, according to a markets-based estimate of macro conditions. The Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI) closed at +8.2% yesterday (Nov. 10). The index’s revival comes after briefly dipping in mid-October to the lowest level so far in 2014. But even at last month’s trough, MMRI remained positive. The benchmark’s continued run of readings above zero through yesterday suggests that business cycle risk remains low. A decline below 0% in MMRI would indicate that recession risk is elevated. By comparison, readings above 0% imply that the economy will expand in the near-term future.
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