Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 213,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s February update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s median point forecast for several econometric estimates. The median projection matches January’s increase.
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The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) increased in the February estimate — the first rise in six months. GMI — an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes — is projected to earn an annualized 4.0% over the “risk-free” rate for the long term. (For details on the equilibrium-based methodology that’s used to generate the forecasts each month, see the summary below). Today’s updated estimate, which is based on data through the close of last month, jumped 50 basis points from the previous 3.5% projection.
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● Weak US consumer spending points to slower first-quarter growth | Reuters
● German retail sales surge at fastest pace in seven years | Reuters
● U.S. Manufacturing Growth Is Slowest In 13 Months | RTT
● US construction spending falls 1.1 percent in January | Fox
● Steady growth of global manufacturing continues in February | Markit