The pace of growth for US private payrolls stumbled in August, but last month’s deceleration doesn’t translate into a warning sign for the business cycle. That’s the message in yesterday’s monthly update of the Federal Reserve’s Labor Market Index (LMCI), a multi-factor benchmark that’s designed as a comprehensive measure of the broad trend for job-market indicators. Expectations for low recession risk also finds support in initial jobless claims numbers and a markets-based proxy for estimating business cycle conditions.
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