US economic growth continued to weaken in October, according to this morning’s update of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index’s three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3). Last month’s reading slipped to -0.20, the lowest since Mar. 2015. But even after the latest decline, this benchmark of economic activity remains well above its -0.70 tipping point that marks the start of recessions, according to Chicago Fed guidelines. Meantime, there are signs that the trend will firm in the final months of the year. One clue is the Atlanta Fed’s current GDPNow estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth: 2.3% (as of Nov. 18), which reflects a moderate improvement over Q3’s sluggish 1.5% increase.
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The US economy is on track for a modest rebound in the fourth quarter, according to GDP projections from several sources. Although it’s still early for developing robust estimates for Q4, most economists are looking for improvement over Q3’s tepid 1.5% rise in GDP (seasonally adjusted annual rate).
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Emerging-markets equities enjoyed a solid rise last week among the major asset classes, based on a set of proxy ETFs. Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock (VWO) posted a solid 4.5% total return for the five days of trading through Nov. 20, edging out the number-two performer for the week, US real estate investment trusts (REITS), based on Vanguard REIT (VNQ).
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● Eurozone Composite PMI rise to 4-1/2 year high in Nov | Markit
● Germany Composite PMI ticks up to 3-mo high in Nov | Markit
● France Composite PMI slips to 3-mo low in Nov | Markit
● Kansas City mfg index in Nov: first positive reading since Feb | KC Star
● Eurozone consumer confidence index rises in November | Reuters