Last week’s news that the ISM Manufacturing Index dipped below the neutral 50.0 mark in November for the first time in three years has inspired some folks to declare that the US economy is on the verge of slipping into a new recession. Perhaps, but letting one indicator drive your analysis of the business cycle is a dangerous game that’s prone to a high degree of error. On the other hand, seeing a new contraction on a semi-regular basis makes for exciting TV interviews.
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Yield-sensitive assets in foreign markets topped last week’s performance ledger for the major asset classes via a set of proxy ETFs. iShares International High Yield Bond (HYXU) secured the top spot for the five trading days through Dec. 4 with a strong 2.8% total return. Following up in 2nd and 3rd place: foreign real estate (VNQI) and broadly defined commodities (DJP), respectively.
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● US job growth beats expectations in Nov | Bloomberg
● Solid jobs report for Nov points to Fed rate hike | LA Times
● Summers: doubts about the US ability to absorb real rate hikes | FT
● German industrial output softer than expected in Oct | Bloomberg
● China’s plans for reducing dollar’s influence | Bloomberg
● Oil weakens after Opec fails to agree of output cut | Reuters