Private nonfarm payrolls in the US are projected to increase by 231,000 (seasonally adjusted) in January over the previous month in tomorrow’s update of the ADP Employment Report, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average projection reflects a moderately lesser rise vs. December’s increase.
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Daily Archives: February 2, 2016
Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 February 2016
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) remained subdued in January. GMI — an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes — is projected to earn an annualized 2.9% return over the “risk-free” rate in the long term. (For details on the equilibrium-based methodology that’s used to generate the forecasts each month, see the summary below.) Today’s revised estimate, which is based on data through last month, matches the projection in the previous month’s update.
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Initial Guidance | 2 February 2016
● US Personal Income Rising, Spending Flat in Dec | 24/7 Wall St
● ISM: US mfg contracts for 4th straight month in Jan | MarketWatch
● PMI: Modest growth in US mfg picks up in Jan | Markit
● Slim rise for US construction spending in Dec | RTT
● Gallup: US consumer spending slips in Jan | Gallup
● Global Mfg growth is weak in Jan but ticks higher | Markit
● Eurozone unemployment ticks lower in Dec but so do factory prices | Reuters
● Republican Cruz bests Trump in Iowa race, Clinton edges out Sanders | Reuters