Daily Archives: March 3, 2016

US Nonfarm Private Payrolls: February 2016 Preview

US private nonfarm payrolls in February are projected to increase by 182,000 (seasonally adjusted) in tomorrow’s Labor Dept. report over the previous month, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction represents a moderate rebound after the previous month’s sluggish increase.
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Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 3 March 2016

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to hold at a relatively low level in February. GMI — an unmanaged, market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes — is projected to earn an annualized 2.9% return over the “risk-free” rate in the long term. (For details on the equilibrium-based methodology that’s used to generate the forecasts each month, see the summary below.) Today’s revised estimate, which is based on data through last month, matches the projection in last month’s update.
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Initial Guidance | 3 March 2016

● ADP Reports Stronger-than-Expected US Feb Payroll Growth | WSJ
● Fed Beige Book: US expansion with varying wage growth | Bloomberg
● US mortgage applications fall 4.8%, despite rate drop | CNBC
● Eurozone retail sales climb for 3rd straight month | MarketWatch
● PMI: Eurozone economic growth at 13-mo low as France contracts | Markit
● PMI: Chinese service sector expands at weaker pace in Feb | Markit