US private nonfarm payrolls in April are projected to increase by 204,000 (seasonally adjusted) over the previous month in tomorrow’s Labor Dept. report, based on The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The prediction represents a modest improvement over the previous month’s increase.
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Daily Archives: May 5, 2016
US Jobless Claims & Job Cuts Rise In April
It’s not terrible, but today’s updates on layoffs for April imply that growth is fading for the US labor market. Deciding if the deceleration will roll on–or give way to firmer numbers–is unknown at this point. Until or if upcoming releases bring deeper clarity, for good or ill, it’s still reasonable to assume that modest growth is the path of least resistance. But this morning’s numbers follow yesterday’s surprisingly weak profile of US private-sector payrolls via ADP’s estimate. The negative news is partly offset by upbeat survey reports for the US services sector for April. Nonetheless, the employment data isn’t moving in the right direction at the moment. Will tomorrow’s official job report for April tell us otherwise? Yes, according to the consensus forecast via Econoday.com. While we’re waiting for Friday’s news, let’s dig into the details on the latest figures for jobless claims and job cuts.
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Survey Data For US Services Sector Hint At Mild Q2 Rebound
Yesterday’s discouraging numbers on job growth in April via the ADP Employment Report raise doubts about a rebound in US growth for the second quarter. But if you’re looking for reasons to keep hope alive, Wednesday’s survey data for the services sector fits the bill.
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Initial Guidance | 5 May 2016
● ADP reports US private-sector job gains slowed in April | MarketWatch
● US ISM Non-Mfg Index climbs to 4-month high in April | Bloomberg
● PMI: US service sector growth in April accelerates to 3-mo high | Markit
● US factory orders rose modestly in March | AP
● US Productivity Fall in Q1 for 2nd straight quarter | Bloomberg
● US mortgage applications fell 3.4% last week | CNBC
● Survey based US Job Creation Index steady in Apr, near record high | Gallup
● China Services PMI growth slows to a crawl in April | Markit
● Global air passenger traffic slows in March | IATA