● Big Mistakes: The Best Investors and Their Worst Investments
By Michael Batnick
Review via The Wall Street Journal
If I had to write one sentence that is true always and everywhere, it would be this: Smart investors did stupid things again today.
A new book, “Big Mistakes: The Best Investors and Their Worst Investments,” by Michael Batnick, director of research at Ritholtz Wealth Management in New York, is the latest proof of that. It’s also a reminder that making mistakes with your money is normal, human and hard to avoid.
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Consumer discretionary stocks are now the top-performing sector year to date, based on a set of exchange-traded funds through yesterday’s close (June 14). Although technology shares had been the leading sector in 2018, a strong rally this month in consumer discretionary companies has lifted this slice of the stock market to the top performance slot for the year so far. Tech shares overall, by comparison, have posted mild gains in June.
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US approves second round of tariffs on Chinese goods: Reuters
European Central Bank decides to end bond-buying program: Bloomberg
China’s growth is slowing as gov’t pinches access to easy money: NY Times
Retail spending in US jumped 0.8% in May, the most in 6 months: Reuters
US import prices rose a strong 0.6% in May: Reuters
US jobless claims fell 4,000 last week to 218,000: MarketWatch
Business inventories in the US rebounded in April: MarketWatch
Millionaires, billionaires control nearly half of global personal wealth: Bloomberg
SEC official: bitcoin and ether are not securities: Yahoo Finance
GDPNow estimate of US Q2 growth ticks up to strong +4.8%: Atlanta Fed

Later this month I’ll be publishing my third book: Quantitative Investment Portfolio Analytics In R: An Introduction To R For Modeling Portfolio Risk and Return. Although there are already many R books on the market, this one serves a particular niche: a short guide for recovering Excel addicts running relatively sophisticated analytics on investment portfolios and bumping up against the limits of spreadsheets.
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The rally in shares of small-capitalization shares relative to large caps has accelerated in recent weeks. A month ago, the Russell 2000 (a widely followed gauge of small companies) was ahead of its large-cap counterpart (Russell 1000) by roughly three percentage points year to date. The small-cap edge has since widened to nearly five percentage points, as of yesterday’s close (June 13).
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South Korea will consider changes to military policy for N. Korea: Reuters
European Central Bank set to wind down monetary stimulus: Reuters
Trump says he’ll confront China “very strongly” on trade: Bloomberg
US, Saudi Arabia and Russia agree on goal of lower energy prices: NY Times
China industrial output up 6.8% in May, just below expectations: RTT
Fed raises interest rates and expects two more in 2018: MarketWatch
Fed policy suggests an inverted yield curve is near: Bloomberg
Median Fed US GDP growth forecast for 2018 ticks up to 2.8%: CNBC
US producer prices post biggest annual gain in over 6 years in May: Reuters
Firms’ inflation outlook mostly unchanged at 2.1% for year ahead: Atlanta Fed
10-2-year Treasury spread dips below 40 basis point for first time since 2007:

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates today, a policy move that may further squeeze the difference between short and long Treasury yields. If the already narrow rate spread continues to tighten, the ongoing slide will raise new questions about the outlook for the US economy, at least in the eyes of some economists and investors.
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Key takeaways from Trump-Kim summit: The Hill
N. Korean media highlights US concession on war games: Reuters
Eurozone industrial output fell in Apr, ahead of ECB meeting: WSJ
Saudi-led forces unleash new assault in Yemen: Time
Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates today: Yahoo Finance
Key questions that may come up in today’s Fed press conference: MW
Federal judge OKs AT&T deal to buy Time Warner: Bloomberg
Small business optimism index in US rose to 34-year high in May: Bloomberg
US consumer price inflation in May rose at fastest pace in 6 years: MW

Talking about peace is always better than threatening war. By that standard, President Trump’s historic meeting with North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un – the first time a sitting US president has met with a North Korean leader – can be called a success. But the lack of substance, other than a joint statement announcing a goal to denuclearize the Korean peninsula at some point in the future, is a reminder that the photo optics are easy. Genuine, verifiable progress, on the other hand, is hard and on that front it’s not yet obvious that anything has changed with respect to North Korea.
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Trump and N. Korea’s Kim sign agreement to de-nuke Korean peninsula: Reuters
US opens new defacto embassy in Taiwan, angering China: Reuters
Will another Fed rate hike set off recession alarm? WSJ
US Treasury imposes sanctions on Russian individuals and companies: Reuters
Internet neutrality ended on Monday: Here’s what to expect: The Verge
ETF price war spreads to fixed income and gold funds: FT
A closer look at demographics as a factor in slower growth: VoxEU
US consumer inflation expectations in May hold steady at 3.0%: NY Fed
Fed funds futures pricing in 96% probability for rate hike on Wed (June 13): CME