US equities posted the biggest gain among the major asset classes last week, based on a set of exchange-traded products. Foreign and US real estate shares grabbed second- and third-place finishes, respectively, for the five trading days through Friday, June 8.
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Trump attacks key US allies on trade: BBC
Trump says Tuesday’s US-N. Korea summit could “work out very nicely”: Reuters
Germany’s Merkel: EU will respond to US tariffs: Reuters
Economists expect Fed to continue gradual rate hikes: Bloomberg
Upcoming OPEC meeting may be contentious amid calls for higher output: OilPrice
US wholesale inventories tick higher in April: Reuters
Small-cap stocks (Russell 2000) continue to beat large caps (S&P 500) in 2018:

● The Populist Temptation: Economic Grievance and Political Reaction in the Modern Era
By Barry Eichengreen
Review via Foreign Affairs
In this survey of two centuries of populist movements and political revolts in Western democracies, Eichengreen argues that from the Luddites in early-nineteenth-century England to the upheavals of the interwar period, economic insecurity, labor dislocations, and rising inequality fueled backlash politics. Yet not all periods of economic hardship generate populist revolts, and not all populist revolts succeed. Eichengreen shows that populism tends to thrive most when economic insecurity exposes the divergent interests of the people and the elites. Societies become particularly ripe for populist backlashes in the wake of financial crises that lead to bailouts for plutocrats.
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Two analysts recently warned that so-called soft economic data has become less reliable for profiling the macro trend. “We believe the soft data, and subsequent forecasts, are suffering from a circular reference due to groupthink, herd mentality and political preferences,” Jim Bianco (Bianco Research) and Ben Breitholtz (Arbor Research & Trading) opined last month. If they’re right, indicators such as the ISM Manufacturing Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey offers less insight for monitoring the business cycle.
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Trump criticizes Canada and France on trade ahead of G7 summit: MarketWatch
Trump focuses on “attitude” over prep work ahead of N. Korea summit: Politico
US jobless claims fell last week, pointing to tighter labor market: Reuters
Consumer credit growth in US dips to 7-month low in April: MarketWatch
Survey data suggests Q1 GDP growth due for another downgrade: Reuters
Former Fed Chairman Bernanke: US faces speed bump in 2020: Bloomberg
Rising economic optimism isn’t boosting support for GOP candidates: NBC

The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) was 4.9% in May, unchanged from the previous month. The projected return over the “risk-free” rate is an estimate for the long run for the index — an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes.
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Fed set to raise rates above inflation for first time in a decade: Reuters
German factory orders fell for fourth month in April: Bloomberg
Unionized UPS workers move closer to a strike: USA Today
India’s central bank hikes rates for first time in four years: CNNMoney
The US labor market may not be as strong as it appears: MNI
Trade deficit for US shrinks for second month: AP
US productivity drops nearly by half in first quarter: MarketWatch
Tech stocks drive rally in US equities: Bloomberg
US stock market (S&P 500) rallies to highest close since mid-March:

In late-2017 some analysts warned that the sliding annual growth rate for commercial and industrial lending in the US would soon turn negative, raising a warning sign for the US economy. But the dark forecast fell flat. US recession risk is virtually nil and early estimates for second-quarter GDP growth point to a firmer trend as the year-over-year change for loan growth continued to pick up through April.
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Democrats enjoyed an edge in Tuesday’s primary results: The Hill
Mexico retaliates by imposing trade tariffs on US: Reuters
China maintains resolve after US bombers fly near disputed islands: Reuters
US-China relations at risk of further deterioration over conflicts: Guardian
A major UPS labor strike in US may be lurking: CNN
Global PMI: world economic growth rate rose to 3-month high in May: IHS Markit
US job openings exceeded unemployed workers in April: LA Times
ISM Non-Mfg Index: services sector expanded faster than expected: Bloomberg
US Services PMI ticks up to 2-year high in May: IHS Markit

Recent estimates for US economic output in the second quarter continue to anticipate a robust acceleration after the subdued rise in Q1, based on the median of several forecasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. The current projections see real GDP growth in Q2 picking up to 3.7% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from Q1’s 2.2%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is scheduled to publish its initial GDP report for the second-quarter on July 27.
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