The casual consumer of economic news may be tempted to lump the recent surge in recession warnings as one of a kind. But the quality and reliability in this corner of macro analytics varies widely and so it’s essential to recognize the basics for how and why business cycle profiles diverge.

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Fed expected to cut rates today, for second time this year: WSJ
Saudi Arabia set to show evidence of Iran link in oil facility attacks: Reuters
Oil exports will continue as normal, Saudi Arabia says: Bloomberg
Israel election, second in 5 months, results in deadlock: BBC
An economic crisis for Latin America is lurking: NY Times
Eurozone inflation stable in Aug, at lowest pace in nearly 3 years: Reuters
UK inflation slips to slowest pace since 2016: Bloomberg
US manufacturing activity rebounded in August, Federal Reserve reports: CNBC
US homebuilders remain bullish in September on housing outlook: NAHB