Recession worries have become topical in recent months, but the odds are low that a smoking gun will be found in next month’s initial report on third-quarter GDP, according to a revised set of nowcasts. In fact, the current numbers reflect a slightly stronger outlook compared with estimates from early September.

Continue reading →

Ukraine controversy fuels talk of Trump impeachment: The Hill
Trump considers a new meeting with N. Korea’s Kim Jong Un: CNBC
US Treasury Secretary: trade talks to happen in 2 weeks: SCMP
German business sentiment rebounded in September: Reuters
Hard data on German mfg still heightens recession risk: Bloomberg
US economy continued to strengthen at a modest pace in Aug: Chicago Fed
US growth is slow but steady in September, PMI survey data shows: IHS Markit