Monthly Archives: September 2019

Macro Briefing | 5 September 2019

Hurricane Dorian threatens the Carolinas: CNN
US and China schedule trade talks for early October: WSJ
A new recession warning for Germany: factor orders fell in July: Bloomberg
UK Parliament blocks no-deal Brexit: Vox
Is Hong Kong leader’s concession enough to end protests? Vox
Fed’s Beige Book report offers upbeat profile of US economy: MW
US trade deficit narrowed slightly in July: Reuters
GDPNow model trims US GDP growth for Q3 to sluggish +1.5%: Atlanta Fed
Today’s ADP estimate of US payrolls for Aug expected to post 1.7% annual gain:

Risk Premia Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 4 September 2019

The Global Market Index’s risk premium dipped to an annualized 4.6% in today’s revised outlook, based on data through August. The projection markets a modest decline from last month’s analysis. GMI is an unmanaged market-value-weighted portfolio that holds all the major asset classes (except cash). The forecast for this passive benchmark represents the ex ante premium over the expected “risk-free” rate for the long term.

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Macro Briefing | 4 Sep 2019

After bashing Bahamas, Hurricane Dorian now lashing Florida’s coast: Reuters
Hong Kong leader to withdraw bill that led to protests: WSJ
UK’s Brexit mess headed for showdown after Parliament vote: CNBC
Gold expected to continue rising as Fed plans to cut rates: Bloomberg
Global Mfg PMI continues to reflect mild contraction in Aug: IHS Markit
Eurozone PMI growth stabilized at slow pace in August: IHS Markit
US construction spending rose in July but 1-year trend still negative: Reuters
US PMI Mfg Index virtually flat in August: IHS Markit
US ISM Mfg Index reflects contraction in August–first decline in 3 years: Bloomberg

Macro Briefing | 3 Sep 2019

After pounding the Bahamas, Hurricane Dorian heads to US: CNN
US moves closer to withdrawing troops from Afghanistan: Fox
US-China trade war taking a toll on global economy: WSJ
Goldman Sachs: inflation outside US is accelerating: Bloomberg
Consumer spending in US surged in August: MW
Trade worries weighed on US consumer sentiment in August: Bloomberg
UK mfg activity fell at the fastest pace in seven years in August: Reuters
China’s manufacturing sector contracted for fourth straight month in August: NBS
Eurozone mfg sector continued to contract in August: IHS Markit