The recent economic slowdown has fanned worries that the US is headed for a rough year in 2020. But some analysts are practicing the art of seeing the glass half full and are now calling for improved odds that economic activity will pick up in the new year. All the usual caveats apply, of course, when mere mortals attempt to divine the future. But let’s run this idea through a mild stress test using hard data and a set of combination forecasts to see if the case for optimism holds up. As a preview, the results below imply that while it’s premature to rule out the possibility for firmer growth next year, The Capital Spectator’s view is that growth appears more likely stabilize at a relatively modest pace for the near term.
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House prepares for impeachment vote on Trump: Reuters
Here’s the outlook for today’s new ECB head’s first policy meeting: MW
UK goes to polls today in third general election in less than 5 years: BBC
Wharton study: Warren’s wealth tax will raise $1 trillion less than expected: CNBC
Fed leaves interest rates unchanged at policy meeting: NY Times
Fed economic projections continue to anticipate slow/slowing growth: Fed
So-called black-swan index flashes warning for stocks: Reuters
Eurozone industrial production continued to fall in October: Reuters
No sign of US recession on the horizon, predicts BCA: MW
Atlanta Fed business inflation expectation steady at +1.9% for Dec: AF
US headline consumer inflation (1-year change) jumps to 12-month high: MW