Another week, another gain for shares in emerging markets, which posted the strongest increase for the major asset classes over the trading week through January 10, based on a set of exchange traded funds.
Monthly Archives: January 2020
Macro Briefing | 13 January 2020
Iranian protests raise pressure on government: CNN
US-China trade war had limited impact on US economy in 2019: WSJ
Will China flex military muscles after Taiwan’s election? Reuters
Trump wants to restart talks with North Korea: Axios
UK GDP fell 0.3% in November, marking fourth month with no growth: CityAM
US employment growth slowed in Dec after strong gain in Nov: Reuters
US wage growth in Dec eased to 2.9% annual pace–slowest in over a year:
Book Bits | 11 January 2020
By George G. Szpiro
Summary via publisher (Columbia U. Press)
At its core, economics is about making decisions. In the history of economic thought, great intellectual prowess has been exerted toward devising exquisite theories of optimal decision making in situations of constraint, risk, and scarcity. Yet not all of our choices are purely logical, and so there is a longstanding tension between those emphasizing the rational and irrational sides of human behavior. One strand develops formal models of rational utility maximizing while the other draws on what behavioral science has shown about our tendency to act irrationally. In Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty, George G. Szpiro offers a new narrative of the three-century history of the study of decision making, tracing how crucial ideas have evolved and telling the stories of the thinkers who shaped the field.
US Employment Growth’s 1-Year Pace Slows To 9-Year Low
A softer gain in hiring was expected for December, but today’s report from the US Labor Department was weaker than economists forecast. Companies added 139,000 workers last month–moderately lower vs. the 150,000 consensus point forecast via Econoday.com. That’s still a respectable gain, although it’s no match for November’s blowout surge of 243,000 new jobs in the private sector.
Deep-Value ETF Report: Commodities/Energy Remain Out Of Favor
Ben Graham famously described Mr. Market’s psychological state from day to day as vulnerable to erratic swings of optimism and pessimism. But recent history shows that the crowd’s exhibited a mostly stable view on commodities and energy by consistently discounting these assets by relatively aggressive standards, based on a set of exchange-traded products. That was true in our last update (Aug. 22, 2019) and remains so today.
Macro Briefing | 10 January 2020
Iran disputes that it accidentally shot down Ukrainian jetliner: Bloomberg
House passes resolution to curb Trump’s war powers: CNBC
Softer growth expected in today’s Dec employment report for US: Reuters
World Bank warns that risk of debt crisis is rising: Guardian
US jobless claims fell again last week, closing in on 50-year low: MW
Upbeat consumer confidence contrasts with gloomy CEO sentiment: CNBC
Will The 10-Year Treasury Yield’s Recent Rebound Continue?
The benchmark rate on the 10-year Treasury has been trending higher since October, suggesting that the sharp slide that unfolded earlier in 2019 has run its course. But the economic outlook is still sufficiently murky to reserve judgment on whether the latest bounce in this key yield is a limited revival after an arguably excessive slide or the start of a sustained rise.
Macro Briefing | 9 January 2020
Trump decides to de-escalate war risk with Iran: ABC
US-Iran tensions are down but risk is still lurking: CNBC
China’s vice premier expected to sign trade deal with US next week: Reuters
US likely added 2.14mm jobs last year–least since 2011: Bloomberg
World Bank cuts global growth expectations: WB
German industrial production rebounded sharply in November: Reuters
Gloomy economics conference contrasts with expanding economy: NY Times
ADP: US private jobs growth rebounded in Dec but 1yr trend continued to ease:
Moderate Growth Expected In Upcoming US GDP Report For Q4
The US economy remains on track to expand at a moderate pace in the final three months of 2019. The outlook is based on a median nowcast for the initial estimate of the fourth-quarter GDP report that’s scheduled for release by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Jan. 30. If correct, output will rise at or near Q3’s pace, which suggests that recession risk remained low through the end of last year.
Macro Briefing | 8 January 2020
Iran retaliates, firing missiles at US bases in Iraq: CNBC
Taiwan’s pro-independence president looks set for re-election: NY Times
Eurozone economic sentiment edged up for second month in Dec: Reuters
Germany’s manufacturing ‘misery’ continued in Nov as new orders fell: Reuters
US services sector continued to expand moderately in December: ISM
US trade deficit narrowed to 3-year low in November: MW
Atlanta Fed’s Q4 GDP growth nowcast for US holds at moderate +2.3%: AF
US factory orders continued to decline via 1-year trend in Nov:
