The recent rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield has stalled. It’s unclear if this is a pause before the upside trend resumes vs. the early stages of new leg down. The sharp rise in inflation this year and the potential for an economic slowdown in the new year are conflicting factors that are muddying the outlook. While this scenario continues, our baseline forecast anticipates that a trading range for the 10-year rate will prevail in the near term, in part based on today’s update of The Capital Spectator’s ensemble model for estimating the benchmark yield’s “fair value.”

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* California reimposes mandatory indoor mask requirement
* 2-dose Pfizer jab reportedly protects 70% against hospitalization from omicron
* US secretary of state warns China to end ‘aggressive actions’ in Asia-Pacific
* Second case of Omicron variant found in China
* US small business sentiment ticked up in Nov but still far below previous peak
* Wall St is starting to see opportunity in China’s battered stock market
* Apple on track to become world’s first $3 trillion company
* US 10yr Treasury yield falls to 1.42%–second-lowest level in over two months: