It’s been a tough year for the stocks, in the US and around the world – with a glaring exception: shares in Latin America.
Yearly Archives: 2022
Macro Briefing: 13 October 2022
* Russia continues widespread attacks on Ukraine with drones
* Fed officials expect higher interest rates to persist, according to Fed minutes
* OPEC+ oil supply cuts may be “tipping point for a global economy,” IEA warns
* Capital spending cuts by world’s leading chip firm are warning for tech sector
* Chip firm Intel planning major layoffs, a warning for the PC market
* Wholesale prices in the US rose more than forecast in September
* Business inflation outlook steady at 3.3% in October via Atlanta Fed survey
* US Treasury real (inflation-adjusted) yields remain close to 12-year highs:
US Economy Still Appears On Track For Rebound In Q3 GDP Data
The US economic outlook remains dicey as various macro and geopolitical risk factors continue to swirl, but a rebound is still intact for the current nowcast of the upcoming third-quarter GDP report, based on the median for a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
Macro Briefing: 12 October 2022
* IMF issues warning on global economic outlook
* Weak economic outlook implies lower inflation, analysts advise
* Strong dollar is ‘logical outcome’ of policy decisions, says Treasury Sec. Yellen
* UK economy contracts in August, a downside surprise to forecasters
* Long-term inflation outlook suggests relatively mild pricing pressure
* US small business sentiment rises modestly for third month in September:
Mr. Market’s Macro Outlook: 11 October 2022
Mr. Market always has a view. Many, in fact. They’re not always right, but they keep coming. That includes views on the macro outlook. While there are no formal forecasts, there are implied estimates of various big-picture trends. One way to read the tea leaves: calculating the ebb and flow with various pairs of proxy ETFs.
Macro Briefing: 11 October 2022
* Russia launches second day of missile strikes on Ukraine
* Putin warns of more attacks after deadly Russian strikes across Ukraine
* Goldman Sachs says it’s “too early” to price in a dovish Fed pivot
* Fed’s Charles Evans reaffirms fighting inflation as top policy task
* Fed Vice Chair says rate hikes will slow economy over time
* Bank of England intervenes in bond markets again, sees financial-instability risk
* US stock market looks poised to retest recent lows:
A Partial Recovery For Global Markets Last Week
Global markets posted a mixed run in last week’s trading, but the general trend continues to skew negative, based on a set of proxy ETFs through Friday’s close (Oct. 7).
Macro Briefing: 10 October 2022
* Russia launches wave of missile strikes across Ukraine
* This week’s consumer inflation report for September is in focus
* US adds more restrictions on sales of computer chip technology to China
* Will the Fed-engineered economic slide be deeper than necessary?
* Treasury Sec. Yellen: oil production cuts are a threat to global economy
* Resilient labor market suggests Fed’s inflation-fighting policies will persist
* Fed Governor Christopher Waller says housing correction could deepen
* Core inflation still rising, says chief economic adviser at Allianz
* US payrolls rise a solid 263,000 in September:
Book Bits: 8 October 2022
Martin Chorzempa
Summary via publisher (Public Affairs Books)
The future of finance – the way Wall Street operates and how individuals manage their money – is on the verge of upheaval. And the force underlying the change comes from China, where finance and technology are being merged into a system with consequences that resonate far beyond China’s border. The changes of this global revolution in finance and technology – fintech – will be as powerful as those wrought in social media, retailing and advertising by giants such as Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Twitter, which have overturned how we shop and communicate. China reinvented money with lightning speed, transforming a backward, antiquated cash-based finance system into one centered on super-apps created by technology giants Alibaba and Tencent.
Research Review | 7 Oct 2022 | Interest Rates and Inflation
The Factor Multiverse: The Role of Interest Rates in Factor Discovery
Jules H. van Binsbergen (University of Pennsylvania), et al.
September 2022
We study the importance of the decline in interest rates in the discovery of asset pricing anomalies. We investigate 153 discovered anomalies as well as 1,395 potential undiscovered anomalies and find that absent the decline in interest rates, the asset pricing literature would likely entertain a different set of anomalies today. As the decline in interest rates is not continuing, a reevaluation of relevant anomalies going forward is warranted. To this end, we use a duration-based interest rate adjustment procedure to classify anomalies into false positives, false negatives, and those robust to the effect of interest rates. Our analysis highlights the sensitivity of the factor discovery process to this specific observed economic time period.