Monthly Archives: November 2024

Happy Thanksgiving 2024

The festival of eating, giving thanks, and breaking free of the usual routine will keep your editor off the grid for a few days. Regular programming returns on Monday, Dec. 2. Cheers!

Macro Briefing: 26 November 2024

Is a reflation problem brewing for the Federal Reserve in 2025? A TMC Research note highlights the potential factors aligning for 2025 that may trigger a course correction for monetary policy: “In the context of potentially reflationary factors brewing for 2025 from various sources, the outlook for ramping up money supply growth could be ill-timed for the central bank’s plans to manage inflation pressures.”

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Macro Briefing: 25 November 2024

US growth in business activity strengthened in November, according to PMI survey data. The US PMI Composite Output Index, a GDP proxy, rose to 55.3, a 31-month high. “The business mood has brightened in November, with confidence about the year ahead hitting a two-and-a-half year high,” says , Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. “The prospect of lower interest rates and a more probusiness approach from the incoming administration has fueled greater optimism, in turn helping drive output and order book inflows higher in November.”

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Book Bits: 23 November 2024

Tech Agnostic: How Technology Became the World’s Most Powerful Religion, and Why It Desperately Needs a Reformation
Greg M. Epstein
Q&A with author via The.ink
Q: How does it help us to frame “tech” — and that’s a thing distinct from “technology” as you put it in the book — as religion, and are there ways that analytic frame might hinder our understanding?
A: It helps us to understand how far removed from reality a lot of what we’re told about tech. I want people to really look at what we’re doing when we’re interfacing with what this mythical Silicon Valley and its people are doing. When we’re creating these fantasies of a kind of technological heaven, these terrifying scenarios of a technological hell, then we’re literally in the business of creating tech gods.

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US Continuing Jobless Claims Rise To 3-Year High. Time To Worry?

The ongoing rise in continuing claims looks worrisome, but initial claims are telling a considerably more upbeat story. Which one’s the better measure? The positive spin via initial claims is probably the superior metric for assessing the near-term outlook for payrolls and, by extension, the economy. But let’s dig into this view for some perspective before signing off on the idea entirely.

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Macro Briefing: 22 November 2024

US jobless claims fall to the lowest level since April. “The weekly claims report remains the best real-time monitor of labor market conditions,” Jefferies US economist Thomas Simons writes in a research note. “Right now, the data show that the labor market is trending sideways at a healthy level.”

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Is The Relatively Weak Trend For US Private Payrolls A Warning?

If you could only track one economic indicator to monitor the economy the trend in payrolls would be a solid choice. Think of it as the fuel that powers consumer spending engine, which accounts for nearly 70% of economic activity. The good news is that the labor market still looks solid, based on several conventional metrics. But an alternative indicator your editor is watching introduces a degree of doubt about what may be in store for 2025.

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