The long-run expected total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to hold in the low-7% range in August, based on the average for three models (defined below). The expected performance remains well below the trailing 10-year return for GMI, a market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes (excluding cash).
Daily Archives: September 3, 2025
Macro Briefing: 3 September 2025
US manufacturing activity contracted for sixth straight month in August, based on the ISM Manufacturing Index. One bright spot: the new orders component improved to 51.4 last month, reflecting a modest growth rate. “I continue to see the broad economy generally and the manufacturing sector in particular as in a holding pattern until tariff-related uncertainty recedes,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets.
