Estimating US economic activity for the third quarter remains a guessing game. The Bureau of Economic Analysis was scheduled to publish its initial estimate yesterday, Oct. 30, but the government shutdown has delayed the report, along with other crucial data releases. Private-sector numbers are filling in some of the blank spots, but uncertainty is on the rise about the economy. On the bright side, using the dwindling set of updated numbers available for nowcasting Q3 still suggests that the output probably rose at a solid pace.
Monthly Archives: October 2025
Macro Briefing: 31 October 2025
US 10-year Treasury yield continues to rise, trading at at 4.10% on Thursday, marking the highest close in more than three weeks. “The rise in Treasury yields is really the response to the generally hawkish message that I think Powell very intentionally portrayed,” said Matt Bush, US economist at Guggenheim Investmentsat, referencing the Federal Reserve chairman’s comments on Wednesday that raise doubts about another rate cut in December.
Fed’s Powell Raises Doubts About Another Rate Cut
As expected, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut its target rate cut by ¼ point to a 4.0%-to-4.25% 3.75%-4.0% range. The drop marks the second rate cut this year, following the drop in the policy rate in September. A third cut by 2025’s close, however, is less likely, according to Fed Chairman Powell.
Macro Briefing: 30 October 2025
The Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate by 1/4 point on Wednesday, as expected, marking the second time this year the central bank has eased policy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a press conference, raised doubts about a third cut at the next FOMC meeting in December. Treasury yields rose sharply in reaction, including the policy-sensitive 2-year yield, which jumped to 3.60%, a three-week high.
Foreign Stocks Still On Track To Outperform US In 2025
Global equities strategies are having a moment this year. Although US tech is still red hot and the investment darling, American shares overall are lagging the rest of the world on a year-to-date basis, according to a set of ETFs through Tuesday’s close (Oct. 28).
Macro Briefing: 29 October 2025
Technology stocks have increased to a record-high weight in the S&P 500 Index, surpassing the previous high set in 2000 at the peak of the dotcom bubble. “This suggests the tech sector is overvalued, which it may be at a 34% premium to the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500,” writes Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial.
Macro Expectations: Betting Markets | 28 October 2025
As the government shutdown drags on, the data drought follows, which makes betting markets all the more useful for gauging sentiment on the macro outlook. Here’s a quick look at how bettors are pricing expectations for several indicators and scenarios, starting with guesstimates for US consumer inflation in October, a report that may or may not see the light of day via the usual channels in Washington. Although the current estimates are the main attraction, the history of how the bets have evolved is telling as well, providing a top-down guesstimate of where the crowd is headed.
Inflation in October? (CPI YoY)
Macro Briefing: 28 October 2025
President Trump and Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi sign agreement to cooperate on rare earths to lessen dependence on China for the exports of these minerals. Ahead of the announcement, a US-listed ETF targeting stocks in Japan (EWJ) rallied, closing on Monday near a record high.
US Bond Market Remains On Track For Strong Bull Run In 2025
There are several risk factors that, in theory, could weigh on bond market sentiment. Tariffs, gradually rising inflation, elevated policy uncertainty in Washington, a government shutdown, and a deteriorating trend for federal finances, to name a few. But the US bond market is looking through these headwinds and instead focusing on one scenario: expectations for a slowing economy.
Macro Briefing: 27 October 2025
US consumer inflation ticked up to a 3.0% year-over-year rate in September, the highest rate since January. Core CPI held steady at 3.0%. “The immediate dangers from Trump 2.0 tariff policies have not yet fed through to inflation overall,” wrote Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds. “The market will likely hold their applause, however, as one reason inflation is held in check may be due to the economic slowdown seen in many labor market indicators.” Eric Gerster, chief investment officer at AlphaCore Wealth Advisory, said the CPI report “certainly clears the way for the Fed to cut rates next week as they were going to anyway. It certainly leads to a higher expectation of at least two more rate cuts by March.”
