Investor sentiment has been a paragon of teflon-coated indifference to a run a troubling news headlines over the summer, and there are few signs that potentially bearish developments are starting to resonate. Several risk factors are brewing that will test the optimism anew in the fourth quarter, but the bull trend looks no worse for wear as the trading week begins.
Daily Archives: September 15, 2025
Macro Briefing: 15 September 2025
The risk of a US recession ticked up in August, but remains well below a tipping point that signals a high probability of a downturn, according to a business-cycle index published by the Richmond Fed. The SOS Recession Indicator rose to 0.062 last month, which remains substantially under the 0.2 trigger point that equates with elevated recession risk.
