The performance of initial public offerings (IPOs) this year had been lackluster before August, trailing US stocks overall, based on an ETF tracking these securities vs. the S&P 500 Index. The relatively weak results for IPO didn’t surprise analysts, who’ve been arguing that private equity has been stealing the thunder of public offerings and keeping the best new companies from going public. But in recent weeks, the performance of IPOs generally has turned up, and is now leading the equities market by a wide margin in 2025, based on a pair of ETFs.
Monthly Archives: September 2025
Macro Briefing: 17 September 2025
US retail sales beat expectations in August, rising for third straight month. “The American consumer appears to be in good spirits. That’s good news for the economy, but it may heighten debate over how aggressively the Fed needs to cut rates,” said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
US Q3 GDP Report Still On Track To Report Slower Growth
US economic activity is expected to downshift in the third quarter, but not enough to trigger a recession warning, based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.
Macro Briefing: 16 September 2025
NY Fed Manufacturing Index turns negative in September. The unexpected decline reverses gains in the previous two months and marks the biggest monthly setback since June. The pullback partly reflected significant downturns by new orders and shipments.
Markets Continue To Signal Risk-On For Global Strategies
Investor sentiment has been a paragon of teflon-coated indifference to a run a troubling news headlines over the summer, and there are few signs that potentially bearish developments are starting to resonate. Several risk factors are brewing that will test the optimism anew in the fourth quarter, but the bull trend looks no worse for wear as the trading week begins.
Macro Briefing: 15 September 2025
The risk of a US recession ticked up in August, but remains well below a tipping point that signals a high probability of a downturn, according to a business-cycle index published by the Richmond Fed. The SOS Recession Indicator rose to 0.062 last month, which remains substantially under the 0.2 trigger point that equates with elevated recession risk.
Book Bits: 13 September 2025
● The World’s Worst Bet: How the Globalization Gamble Went Wrong (And What Would Make It Right)
David J. Lynch
Review via Kirkus Reviews
As the last century ended, a popular Washington consensus held that the market had all the answers and that bringing China into the global trading system would cement a peaceful future. That seemed to work out until it didn’t. It’s a discouraging story skillfully told by Lynch, global economics correspondent for the Washington Post. He reminds us that America’s industrial production has been declining since the 1950s and that automation, not foreign competition, remains the biggest factor. Obsessed with cutting costs, American businesses were already moving to Mexico and other nations, but everyone thrilled to China, which had discarded “Maoist idiocy” to open a titanic market to world entrepreneurs. The world was getting richer, and the world’s richest nation could only benefit by trading in this immense, supposedly free market. Giving President Clinton most of the credit, Lynch describes his 1990s crusade for globalization.
10-Year US Treasury Yield Market Premium Trends Lower
The “fair value” estimate for the 10-year US Treasury yield remained relatively steady in August while the average level of the actual benchmark rate in the market continued to ease. As a result, the market premium for the 10-year yield dipped to the lowest level in nearly a year last month, based on the average for three models run by CapitalSpectator.com. The downside bias in the market premium -– actual yield less the fair-value estimate — has accelerated lately, fueled by firmer expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its Sep. 17 policy meeting.
Macro Briefing: 12 September 2025
US consumer inflation continued to rise in August at the headline level in year-over-year terms, rising to 2.9% — the highest since January. “Consumer inflation came in mildly hotter than forecast, but not nearly high enough to prevent the Fed from starting to cut rates next week,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist for Nationwide. “The labor market is losing steam and reinforces that the Fed needs to start cutting rates next week and that it will be the start of a series of rate reductions.”
Alternative Energy Stocks Continue To Lead Big Oil In 2025
It’s no secret that the Trump administration is skeptical, to put it mildly, of alternative energy. If that was a signal for investors to dump clean-energy stocks and favor the familiar names in the business of extracting fossil fuels, the crowd didn’t get the memo.