US economic growth estimates for the second quarter have weakened, according to recent nowcasts. The downturn suggests that output will slow in the upcoming Q2 GDP report, based on the median for a set of nowcasts compiled by The Capital Spectator.
Monthly Archives: July 2026
Will Markets Start To Price In Lower Inflation Risk?
The Iran war appears to be over, or so the ongoing ceasefire suggests. The oil market is certainly leaning into that view: the price of crude has dropped sharply in recent weeks and begins trading this week at around $70 a barrel for the U.S. benchmark, marking a return to the level on the eve of the war’s start on Feb. 28.
250 Years and Counting…
Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes | 2 July 2026
The outlook for long-term total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) edged up again in June, touching the highest level in recent history. Despite the recent rise, the expected performance remains well below GMI’s realized return over the trailing ten-year window. In other words, GMI performance is forecast to downshift relative to the past decade.
Major Asset Classes | June 2026 | Performance Review
Markets were mixed in June after two solid monthly gains, based on a set of ETFs. Most of the major asset classes lost ground last month, with a handful of exceptions on the upside, led by US real estate investment trusts.