On paper, the list of risks hanging over the U.S. economy and financial markets is daunting. Presented with today’s concerns a few years ago, a rational investor might have concluded that trouble was brewing and that shifting portfolios toward a more defensive stance was prudent. Yet the past several years have shown that caution has not been a winning strategy. Surprising? Perhaps. But trend analysis often provided evidence that markets could, and in fact did, prove more resilient than the headlines suggested.