* US Secretary of State says UKraine war could last through 2022
* Strategists question bets that Fed will raise target rate to 3%
* China holds military drills around Taiwan as US lawmakers visit
* America’s most popular mortgage rate at 5%–highest in over a decade
* China’s new Covid lockdowns are a risk for global inflation, strategists predict
* Europe’s relationship with China is becoming increasingly tense
* Crypto bosses say regulation for industry turning in their favor
* US consumer sentiment posts surprising rebound in April to 3-month high
* Jobless claims in US rose last week but remain near 50-year low
* US retail sales rose 0.5% in March as inflation continued to sizzle:

Not all recession forecasts are created equal. Meanwhile, US recession forecasts are everywhere. From the lips of famous economists to casual observers of the macro scene, warnings of economic contraction are sprouting like primrose and tulips. The challenge is that the projections don’t come with warning labels, making it difficult to interpret the validity, relevance and timeliness of the forecasts on a case-by-case basis.

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* Biden announces $800 million in new military aid for Ukraine
* US producer-price inflation rose at record-high pace in March
* Is economic recession the only solution for high inflation?
* Economic shock for US housing market is starting to take a toll
* Wall Street thinks the worst of the inflation surge is over
* Atlanta Fed business inflation expectations holds steady in April
* Amazon adds 5% fuel and inflation surcharge for shippers
* Germany is Russia’s primary enabler, sending $200 million a day
* Economists predict sharp recession for Europe if Russian turns off gas
* Global mining shares continue to show strong upside momentum:

The argument that bitcoin (BTC) is money faces an uphill battle. It’s hard to spend in the real world and its value is highly volatile. That doesn’t stop some advocates of the cryptocurrency from insisting that BTC is coin of the realm. If so, it’s not obvious by running correlation analytics on BTC against several conventional asset classes.

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* Putin says peace talks with Ukraine are at dead
* Will modest rate hikes tame inflation? Think again, says top Fed official
* Inflation wave starting to reach Asia
* China Covid lockdowns risk triggering new global supply-chain problems
* US Inflation Savings Bonds set to yield above 9%
* Small business optimism index falls to lowest in nearly two years in March
* US consumer inflation up more than expected in March, up 8.5% from year ago:

The upcoming first-quarter report on US economic output is expected to post the softest gain since the recovery from the coronavirus recession began in the second half of 2020.  

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* Ukraine asks for financial support to ensure country’s ‘survival’
* Biden urges India’s prime minister to reduce purchases of Russian oil
* US orders non-emergency government staff to leave Shanghai due to Covid-19
* High inflation is conspicuous throughout the global economy
* US 10-year Treasury yield rises to highest level in over three years
* Economists estimate US consumer inflation reached new 40-year high in March
* Recession obsession is breaking out everywhere
* Pakistan parliament elects new prime minister
* S&P says Russia has defaulted on its debt
* US Dollar Index remains strong, ticking up to new 2-year high:

The opening week of April was rough on the major asset classes, with the exception of commodities, based on a set of proxy ETFs through the close of trading on Friday, Mar. 8.

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* New Russian assaults focus on eastern Ukraine
* French President Macron faces far-right Le Pen in presidential election
* Rise in US Treasury yields rippling through global markets
* US 10-year Treasury yield tops equivalent for China for first times since 2010
* Economists see a growing risk of a US recession
* It’s not a recession, it’s a ‘war-cession,’ says a leading strategist
* US mortgage payment-to-income ratio tops 29%, highest since 2007
* China continues to promote Russia’s propaganda on Ukraine war
* Economists expect US consumer inflation to accelerate further in March:

● Investing Amid Low Expected Returns: Making the Most When Markets Offer the Least
Antti Ilmanen
Summary via publisher (Wiley)
Investing Amid Low Expected Returns: Making the Most When Markets Offer the Least provides an evidence-based blueprint for successful investing when decades of market tailwinds are turning into headwinds. For a generation, falling yields and soaring asset prices have boosted realized returns. However, this past windfall leaves retirement savers and investors now facing the prospect of record-low future expected returns. Emphasizing this pressing challenge, the book highlights the role that timeless investment practices – discipline, humility, and patience – will play in enabling investment success. It then assesses current investor practices and the body of empirical evidence to illuminate the building blocks for improving long-run returns in today’s environment and beyond. It concludes by reviewing how to put them together through effective portfolio construction, risk management, and cost control practices.

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